Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue of $642.2M and adjusted EBITDA of $238.1M, both above S&P Global consensus; Primary EPS also exceeded estimates as diluted EPS came in at $0.28 versus consensus Primary EPS of ~$0.21, driven by UFC strength and cost controls, while WWE media revenues were temporarily impacted by the Raw transition timing .
UFC delivered broad-based growth: revenue +22% YoY to $343.9M, adjusted EBITDA +25% to $178.4M, with sponsorship +39% and an expanded events calendar, offset by higher production/athlete costs; WWE revenue declined 10% YoY to $298.3M primarily on the short-term Raw deal, but live events and sponsorship rose double digits .
2025 guidance introduced: revenue $2.93–$3.00B and adjusted EBITDA $1.35–$1.39B, with expected tailwinds from Netflix Raw, site fees, and international expansion; near-term headwinds include timing (one fewer Saudi PLE in 2025) and higher costs from more international UFC events .
Capital return is a key catalyst: inaugural $0.38/share quarterly dividend on Mar 31, 2025 and $2B buyback slated to begin in Q2/Q3 2025; Endeavor asset acquisition (IMG, On Location, PBR) expected to close within Q1 2025 and prompt recast financials and updated outlook in early May .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

UFC growth and monetization: “UFC sponsorship revenue grew 28% for the full year” and Q4 sponsorship rose 39%, supported by new/renewed partners; UFC closed Q4 with record-setting events at MSG and a highest-grossing Fight Night in Tampa .
WWE live events and sponsorship momentum: WWE set “more than 40 individual market records” in Q4; sponsorship +48% in Q4, highlighted by Survivor Series and Bad Blood PLEs; strategic cost reductions drove mid-high EBITDA margins throughout 2024 .
Integration and efficiencies: Management exceeded $100M net savings target; continued progress on combined live-events/sponsorship teams and production efficiencies cited as margin drivers .

What Went Wrong

WWE media rights timing headwind: Q4 WWE media revenue -26% YoY and total WWE revenue -10% YoY due to short-term Raw deal in Q4 and fewer third-party deliveries; management called it “purely timing related” ahead of Netflix launch in January .
Production cost pressure: High-cost event mix (UFC Sphere) and more international UFC Fight Nights pressured margins; Q4 consolidated FCF declined to $36.5M partially due to UFC antitrust settlement timing .
Legal/settlement cash outflows: Final approval of $375M UFC antitrust settlement with $250M of payments in 2025; Q4 operating cash flow impacted by $125M installment; these constrain near-term FCF conversion versus “>60%” ex-nonrecurring .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$851.2	$681.2	$642.2
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$150.7	$57.7	$47.5
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$0.72	$0.28	$0.28
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$420.9	$310.0	$238.1
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	49%	46%	37%
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	$218.6	$225.6	$36.5

Results vs S&P Global consensus:

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)	770.9*	665.5*	604.0*
Actual Revenue ($USD Millions)	$851.2	$681.2	$642.2
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)	0.889*	0.575*	0.209*
Actual Diluted EPS ($USD)	$0.72	$0.28	$0.28

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Note: S&P “Primary EPS” may differ from GAAP diluted EPS; “Actual” EPS presented is GAAP diluted from TKO filings.

Segment breakdown – Q4 2024:

Segment	Revenue ($USD Millions)	YoY Change	Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	Adjusted EBITDA Margin
UFC Total	$343.9	+22%	$178.4	52%
• Media Rights & Content	$198.0	+18%	—	—
• Live Events	$64.6	+24%	—	—
• Sponsorship	$67.1	+39%	—	—
• Consumer Products	$14.2	+1%	—	—
WWE Total	$298.3	-10%	$114.3	38%
• Media Rights & Content	$156.3	-26%	—	—
• Live Events	$93.1	+13%	—	—
• Sponsorship	$22.8	+48%	—	—
• Consumer Products	$26.1	+22%	—	—
Corporate	—	—	($54.6)	—

KPIs across quarters:

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
UFC Total Events (count)	11	10	10
UFC Numbered Events (count)	4	3	4
UFC Sponsorship Revenue ($USD Millions)	$61.7	$74.0	$67.1
WWE Live Events Revenue ($USD Millions)	$144.1	$51.1	$93.1
Notable Site Fee (UFC)	$20M (Saudi)	Abu Dhabi (amount not disclosed)	Comparable to prior year (Abu Dhabi)

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue ($USD Billions)	FY 2025	—	$2.930–$3.000	New
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)	FY 2025	—	$1.350–$1.390	New
Free Cash Flow Conversion (ex nonrecurring)	FY 2025	—	>60%	New
Dividend per Share	Q1 2025	—	$0.38/share on Mar 31, 2025	New (details)
Share Repurchase Program	Multi-year	Authorized $2.0B (Oct 24)	Commence Q2/Q3 2025; ~3–4 years	Maintained/Timing specified
UFC Antitrust Settlement Payments	FY 2025	—	$250M cash payments (Q1/Q2)	New (cash impact)

Drivers/qualifiers: 2025 outlook includes Netflix Raw “step-up,” fewer Apex events (more international events; margin-dilutive mix), and timing of Saudi PLEs (one fewer in 2025; ~200 bps revenue and ~50 bps margin headwind) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (Aug)	Q3 2024 (Nov)	Q4 2024 (Feb)	Trend
Media rights renewals	Secular tailwinds highlighted (NBA), strong demand for premium sports; groundwork for UFC/WWE PLE renewals	Outlook improving; renewal creativity to maximize value across platforms	ESPN exclusive window open (Jan 15) for UFC; multiple-package flexibility considered	Intensifying; near-term catalyst
Live events/site fees	Record gates; integration of live-events teams; $20M UFC Saudi site fee; WWE stadium PLEs secured (Indy, Minneapolis)	Records across UFC 306 (Sphere) and WWE; strong ticket yields; site fee collections timing	Continued strength; Kansas City “TKO takeover” format; more international events planned	Expanding (volume and monetization)
Sponsorship	New partners across categories; simultaneous UFC/WWE activations (Call of Duty)	Unified global partnerships driving higher-margin revenue; WWE sponsorship up 54% YoY (Q3)	$375M sponsorship guide (implied); Monster renewal; IBM/Anheuser-Busch momentum	Growing; higher quality logos/pricing
Integration/synergies	Exceed $100M net savings target; combined teams for live events/sponsorship	Cost reductions flowing through margins; production efficiencies	Continued efficiencies; multi-event city weekends to drive operating leverage	Sustained positive
Legal/regulatory	UFC antitrust settlement denied prelim approval; strategy reassessed	Revised settlement charge to $375M; payments staged	Final approval granted; $250M cash out in 2025	Resolved; cash impact in 2025
Capital returns	Share repurchases executed ($165M Q2); program authorized	Announced $2B buyback and $75M quarterly distributions (starting Mar 31, 2025)	Dividend details ($0.38/share); buyback timing Q2/Q3 2025	Clear/near-term
Technology/AI	Emphasis on tools, dynamic pricing; integration efficiencies	—	“Exercising AI opportunities” in pricing/sales monitoring	Early adoption; incremental benefit
Boxing initiative	—	“Organic” approach; potential league via partner; value accretive only	Nearing agreement with Saudis on a TKO-run boxing league (fee-based, earn-in equity)	Emerging optionality

Management Commentary

Ari Emanuel: “TKO delivered record financial performance in 2024… moving Raw… to Netflix will be transformative” and focus on long-term UFC domestic rights and capital returns .
Andrew Schleimer: “Q4 revenue $642M; adjusted EBITDA $238M… UFC had 10 total events including 4 numbered events; media rights up 18%… WWE media down 26% on short-term Raw deal” .
Mark Shapiro: On UFC rights window—“we’re focused on doing what’s best for the business… balance between reach/engagement and monetization” ; On sponsorship—“we’ve guided to $375 million… we are on track” .
Andrew Schleimer: 2025 guide includes one fewer Saudi PLE (≈$55M revenue headwind; ~50 bps margin) and fewer Apex events (lower margin mix) .
Legal resolution: Final approval of UFC antitrust settlement; staged payments; cash flow impact outlined .

Q&A Highlights

UFC domestic media rights: In exclusive period with ESPN/Disney; open to multiple packages; emphasis on maximizing long-term value .
Boxing: TKO close to a Saudi-backed boxing league; fee-based operator role with potential earn-in equity over five years; no TKO capital at risk .
Site-fee economics: Multi-event (UFC/WWE/PBR) “TKO takeover” weekends to deepen monetization; pipeline of premium and non-PLE events .
Sponsorship scaling: On track for ~$375M; cross-league packages with Netflix integration aiding global reach and higher CPMs .
FCF conversion: 2025 free cash flow conversion would be >60% excluding ~$300M nonrecurring (settlement/pro fees); otherwise FCF pressured by $250M cash payments .

Estimates Context

Q4 2024: Revenue beat ($642.2M vs ~~$604.0M consensus*), Primary EPS beat (~~$0.28 GAAP diluted vs ~$0.21 consensus Primary EPS*) .
Q3 2024: Revenue beat ($681.2M vs ~$665.5M consensus*); primary EPS ahead of consensus on S&P measures; margins pressured by UFC Sphere production costs .
Q2 2024: Revenue beat ($851.2M vs ~$770.9M consensus*); diluted EPS $0.72; strong live events/site fees contribution .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Implication: Street likely raises sponsorship/site-fee expectations and incorporates Netflix Raw full-year step-up, while modeling modest margin headwinds from event mix and settlement cash timing.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Growth is durable: UFC/WWE demand (tickets, site fees, sponsorship) remains strong across geographies; expect continuation into 2025 despite mix-related margin dilution .
Near-term catalysts: UFC rights renewal (exclusive window underway), Netflix Raw ramp, multi-event “TKO takeover” format, and capital return execution (dividend, buyback) .
Margin path: Integration/synergies and production efficiencies offset event mix pressures; management exceeded $100M net savings—watch incremental gains from combined operations .
Cash flow: 2025 FCF impacted by $250M settlement payments, but ex-nonrecurring conversion >60% underscores structural cash generation .
Segment mix: UFC momentum (media rights escalation, sponsorship renewals) balanced against WWE media timing; Netflix should normalize and expand WWE reach in 2025 .
Optionality: Boxing league partnership (fee-based, no capital risk) offers upside without balance sheet strain; IMG/On Location/PBR integration to expand monetization vectors .
Positioning: Expect estimate revisions upward on 2025 revenue/EBITDA from sponsorship/site fees and Netflix step-up, tempered by modeled mix-cost headwinds and settlement cash timing .

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary